🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the position over a six-year span.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its leaders acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”